Two Tracks, One Diplomatic Strategy

By Rasıh Resat

We have long known that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Antonio Guterres enjoy a warm relationship, based on considerable mutual respect. We also know that Guterres consulted Erdoğan before making one of his renewed attempts to move the Cyprus issue forward.
My understanding is that Erdoğan’s attitude was, broadly speaking: “If you believe there is still a chance, go and try.”
Guterres did. And he came away deeply disappointed. Anyone looking honestly at the recent history of the Cyprus problem should also recognise that the Turkish Cypriot side was not the source of that disappointment.
Which brings us to the latest Erdoğan-Guterres meeting in New York.
After such meetings, the United Nations issues what is known as a “readout”. These brief statements rarely tell journalists everything we would like to know. In fact, reading a UN readout in search of juicy detail is rather like ordering a full English breakfast and receiving a slice of toast. Nevertheless, what is included matters.
This latest one contained an important sentence:
“The Secretary-General and the President exchanged views on Cyprus, the war in Ukraine and the situation across the Middle East.”
So Cyprus was, once again, on the table.
This came immediately after Erdoğan used the UN General Assembly podium to call on the international community, for the fifth consecutive year, to recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
I believe that persistence matters.
Diplomacy is partly about repetition and persuasion. Saying something once is very different from repeating it for five consecutive years at the world's most important diplomatic gathering. Whether recognition comes tomorrow or not, Erdoğan is ensuring that the proposition does not disappear from the international diplomatic conversation.
Some will inevitably ask: “If Erdoğan is calling for recognition, why is Tufan Erhürman going to New York to meet Guterres?”
Because diplomacy does not have to operate through a single channel.
We recently saw an example in British-American relations, where political tensions involving Keir Starmer and Donald Trump existed alongside another channel through King Charles. Much was made of the King's humour and personal diplomacy — proof, perhaps, that occasionally a well-timed royal joke can achieve what another diplomatic memorandum cannot.
But the serious lesson was that states protect relationships by keeping different channels functioning simultaneously.
Something similar can apply to Cyprus.
There are effectively two channels: Erdoğan and Erhürman. They need not contradict one another and, importantly, they are operating in consultation rather than isolation.
Erdoğan's message is clear: recognise the TRNC and acknowledge the sovereign equality and equal international status of Turkish Cypriots.
I read Erhürman's message differently, but not incompatibly: if you are prepared for a serious, results-oriented negotiating process based on the realities of the island and genuine political equality, then let us talk.
Behind that message lies another one. If you are not prepared to do that, there may eventually come a day when the international community begins responding, in one form or another, to the recognition argument Erdoğan keeps placing before it.
One channel therefore explains the alternative, while the other tests whether an agreement remains possible.
That, after all, is diplomacy: keeping one door open while making clear that it cannot remain open forever — preferably without anyone slamming it on the way out.